Free Football Predictions Today — Accurate Tips & Match Analysis

Tuesday, March 31, 2026
127 matches today 100+ leagues 🎯 56% accuracy (40/71)

Browse today's football predictions, match odds, confidence ratings, and key stats across major leagues. Save fixtures with the ☆ star and view them later on My Selection.

Africa : Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Ethiopia Sao Tome and Principe 31/03/2026 13:00
1.50
4.10
5.60
1 80%
Un3.5
1-0 (1-0)
Burundi Chad 31/03/2026 13:00
1.71
3.60
4.40
1 75%
Ov3.5
4-0 (2-0)
Eswatini Eritrea 31/03/2026 14:00
2.08
3.40
3.15
X 80%
Un2.5
1-2 (0-0)
Mauritius Somalia 31/03/2026 15:00
2.18
3.00
3.35
1 55%
Un1.5
0-0
Europe : UEFA Nations League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Latvia Gibraltar 31/03/2026 16:00
1.17
5.80
23.00
1 80%
Un2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Luxembourg Malta 31/03/2026 16:00
1.64
3.55
5.60
1 75%
Ov1.5
3-0 (1-0)
Colombia flag Colombia : Primera B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Orsomarso Internacional Palmira 31/03/2026 00:00
2.95
2.95
2.38
2 55%
Un2.5
1-2 (0-1)
Real Santander Envigado 31/03/2026 20:00
4.50
3.10
1.83
2 85%
Un2.5
?-?
Tigres FC Barranquilla 31/03/2026 20:00
1.95
2.90
4.20
1 70%
Un2.5
?-?
Brazil flag Brazil : Brasileiro Women
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Ferroviaria W Cruzeiro W 31/03/2026 00:00
2.30
3.20
2.90
2 55%
Un2.5
1-1 (1-0)
Palmeiras W Flamengo W 31/03/2026 00:30
1.30
4.60
8.60
1 70%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Uruguay flag Uruguay : Primera División Apertura
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Central Espanol Deportivo Maldonado 31/03/2026 00:00
3.10
3.10
2.25
2 60%
Ov2.5
2-1 (1-1)
Progreso Liverpool Montevideo 31/03/2026 14:00
3.60
3.25
1.98
2 60%
Un2.5
3-3 (2-2)
Argentina flag Argentina : Copa Argentina
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Union Santa Fe Agropecuario 31/03/2026 00:15
1.61
3.45
6.25
1 70%
Un1.5
2-0 (1-0)
Jamaica flag Jamaica : Premier League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Arnett Gardens Mount Pleasant Academy 31/03/2026 00:30
3.90
3.25
1.85
2 70%
Un2.5
1-1 (0-0)
Costa-Rica flag Costa-Rica : Liga De Ascenso
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Inter San Carlos Municipal Grecia 31/03/2026 01:00
1.36
4.70
6.05
1 80%
Ov2.5
3-1 (1-0)
Colombia flag Colombia : Primera A
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Millonarios Fortaleza FC 31/03/2026 01:20
1.57
3.80
5.90
1 70%
Ov2.5
2-2 (2-1)
World : Friendlies
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Korea DPR U23 Thailand U23 31/03/2026 07:00
2.00
2.90
3.40
2 55%
Un2.5
?-?
Equatorial Guinea Madagascar 31/03/2026 09:00
2.78
3.28
2.41
2 60%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-0)
China PR U23 Vietnam U23 31/03/2026 11:35
1.77
3.25
4.40
1 75%
Un2.5
1-0 (1-0)
China PR U20 Australia U20 31/03/2026 11:35
4.20
3.40
1.67
2 80%
Un1.5
2-4 (0-0)
India U23 Tajikistan U23 31/03/2026 13:30
2.45
3.50
2.38
1 60%
Un3.5
0-1 (0-1)
Liberia Libya 31/03/2026 15:00
3.30
2.90
2.20
2 55%
Un1.5
2-2 (0-2)
Niger Togo 31/03/2026 15:00
2.40
2.97
3.08
2 55%
Un2.5
0-1 (0-1)
Norway Switzerland 31/03/2026 16:00
1.99
3.75
3.35
1 55%
Ov3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Montenegro Slovenia 31/03/2026 16:00
2.95
3.10
2.25
X 80%
Ov1.5
2-3 (2-1)
San Marino Andorra 31/03/2026 16:00
4.20
3.00
1.91
2 70%
Ov2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Hungary Greece 31/03/2026 17:00
2.30
3.20
2.85
1 55%
Un1.5
0-0 (0-0)
Russia Mali 31/03/2026 17:00
1.58
3.85
5.55
1 80%
Ov3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Haiti Iceland 31/03/2026 17:30
3.65
3.45
1.85
2 75%
Un3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Jordan Nigeria 31/03/2026 17:30
4.60
3.40
1.70
2 75%
Ov3.5
1-2 (1-2)
South Africa Panama 31/03/2026 17:30
2.05
3.10
3.35
1 55%
Ov1.5
0-0 (0-0)
Morocco Paraguay 31/03/2026 18:00
1.97
3.20
3.95
1 55%
Ov1.5
0-0 (0-0)
Guinea Benin 31/03/2026 18:00
3.30
3.00
2.15
1 55%
Ov2.5
0-1 (0-1)
Peru Honduras 31/03/2026 18:00
1.90
3.25
3.85
1 80%
Un2.5
1-0 (1-0)
Brazil U20 Paraguay U20 31/03/2026 18:00
1.40
4.10
7.00
1 70%
Ov3.5
?-?
Scotland Ivory Coast 31/03/2026 18:30
3.75
3.25
2.00
X 80%
Ov2.5
0-0 (0-0)
Algeria Uruguay 31/03/2026 18:30
3.40
3.10
2.05
1 60%
Ov3.5
0-0 (0-0)
England Japan 31/03/2026 18:45
1.53
3.95
6.00
1 80%
Ov1.5
?-?
Netherlands Ecuador 31/03/2026 18:45
1.62
3.70
5.50
1 70%
Ov2.5
?-?
Ukraine Albania 31/03/2026 18:45
2.15
3.25
3.00
1 60%
Un1.5
?-?
Spain Egypt 31/03/2026 19:00
1.15
7.20
16.50
1 70%
Ov3.5
?-?
Senegal Gambia 31/03/2026 19:00
1.17
5.60
15.00
1 80%
Un2.5
?-?
Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau 31/03/2026 19:00
1.25
5.00
10.25
1 80%
Ov3.5
?-?
USA Portugal 31/03/2026 23:00
4.50
3.95
1.68
2 80%
Ov3.5
?-?
Argentina Zambia 31/03/2026 23:15
1.03
13.00
56.00
1 80%
Un3.5
?-?
Australia flag Australia : Victoria NPL
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
South Melbourne Dandenong City 31/03/2026 08:30
1.64
3.80
4.50
1 80%
Un2.5
4-2 (0-0)
Asia : Asian Cup Qualification
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Pakistan Myanmar 31/03/2026 09:00
4.80
3.40
1.71
2 70%
Ov2.5
1-2 (0-0)
Chinese Taipei Sri Lanka 31/03/2026 10:30
2.08
3.30
3.25
2 55%
Un3.5
1-3 (0-2)
Singapore Bangladesh 31/03/2026 12:00
1.65
3.50
5.10
1 80%
Un2.5
1-0 (1-0)
Vietnam Malaysia 31/03/2026 12:00
1.71
3.55
4.50
1 80%
Un3.5
3-1 (1-0)
Nepal Laos 31/03/2026 12:00
2.08
3.15
3.40
1 55%
Un3.5
0-1 (0-0)
Bhutan Brunei 31/03/2026 12:30
1.88
3.25
3.95
1 75%
Ov3.5
2-1 (2-1)
Thailand Turkmenistan 31/03/2026 12:30
1.36
4.45
7.60
1 70%
Un3.5
2-1 (1-0)
India Hong Kong 31/03/2026 13:30
2.36
2.98
3.00
2 55%
Un2.5
2-1 (1-0)
Tajikistan Philippines 31/03/2026 14:00
2.08
3.15
3.40
1 55%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Syria Afghanistan 31/03/2026 16:15
1.06
8.40
33.00
1 80%
Ov2.5
5-1 (1-1)
Europe : UEFA U19 Championship Qualification
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
France U19 Croatia U19 31/03/2026 10:00
1.91
3.40
3.50
1 70%
Ov3.5
1-1 (0-0)
Switzerland U19 Norway U19 31/03/2026 10:00
3.20
3.80
1.91
2 70%
Ov3.5
2-1 (1-0)
Latvia U19 Belgium U19 31/03/2026 12:00
20.00
7.25
1.09
2 80%
Ov2.5
2-1 (0-0)
Denmark U19 Czech Republic U19 31/03/2026 12:00
1.91
3.50
3.35
1 80%
Ov3.5
2-1 (0-1)
Turkey U19 Italy U19 31/03/2026 13:00
5.50
3.95
1.50
2 70%
Un3.5
1-1 (0-1)
Hungary U19 Slovakia U19 31/03/2026 13:00
1.95
3.65
3.10
1 80%
Ov2.5
4-2 (1-1)
Northern Ireland U19 Kazakhstan U19 31/03/2026 14:00
1.85
3.55
3.50
1 80%
Ov1.5
1-0 (0-0)
Romania U19 Ukraine U19 31/03/2026 14:00
2.75
3.45
2.25
2 60%
Ov2.5
1-1 (1-0)
Portugal U19 England U19 31/03/2026 15:00
2.50
3.40
2.50
2 55%
Ov2.5
0-6 (0-1)
Serbia U19 Poland U19 31/03/2026 15:00
1.77
3.45
4.00
1 80%
Ov2.5
1-0 (0-0)
Slovenia U19 Finland U19 31/03/2026 16:00
2.55
3.40
2.40
1 55%
Un3.5
0-1 (0-1)
Netherlands U19 Spain U19 31/03/2026 16:00
4.00
3.70
1.73
2 70%
Ov3.5
0-3 (0-0)
Portugal flag Portugal : Liga Revelação U23
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Torreense U23 Famalicão U23 31/03/2026 14:00
2.15
3.00
3.00
1 55%
Un3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Europe : U20 Elite League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Poland U20 Germany U20 31/03/2026 14:45
4.75
3.65
1.64
2 75%
Ov3.5
0-1 (0-0)
Europe : UEFA U21 Championship Qualification
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Latvia U21 Northern Ireland U21 31/03/2026 11:00
3.10
3.20
2.15
1 55%
Un2.5
1-3 (1-1)
Montenegro U21 Poland U21 31/03/2026 12:00
4.75
3.75
1.60
2 70%
Un3.5
0-1 (0-1)
Slovenia U21 Norway U21 31/03/2026 14:00
3.60
3.70
1.80
2 80%
Ov2.5
2-0 (1-0)
Armenia U21 North Macedonia U21 31/03/2026 14:00
2.65
3.30
2.38
2 60%
Un3.5
0-2 (0-1)
Hungary U21 Ukraine U21 31/03/2026 14:30
3.20
3.45
2.00
2 60%
Ov2.5
1-2 (0-1)
Finland U21 Cyprus U21 31/03/2026 15:00
1.11
7.20
18.00
1 80%
Ov3.5
3-0 (1-0)
Czech Republic U21 Gibraltar U21 31/03/2026 15:00
1.03
15.00
66.00
1 75%
Ov3.5
5-0 (2-0)
Kazakhstan U21 Republic of Ireland U21 31/03/2026 15:00
4.50
3.60
1.67
2 75%
Un2.5
0-1 (0-0)
Israel U21 Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 31/03/2026 15:00
1.95
3.25
3.50
1 85%
Ov1.5
0-0 (0-0)
Georgia U21 Malta U21 31/03/2026 15:00
1.13
6.40
17.00
1 70%
Un3.5
4-1 (3-1)
Croatia U21 Turkey U21 31/03/2026 15:30
1.85
3.50
3.55
1 80%
Un2.5
2-0 (1-0)
Romania U21 San Marino U21 31/03/2026 16:00
1.01
10.60
67.00
1 70%
Ov3.5
3-0 (1-0)
Bulgaria U21 Azerbaijan U21 31/03/2026 16:00
1.28
4.50
11.00
1 85%
Un3.5
0-0 (0-0)
Denmark U21 Wales U21 31/03/2026 16:00
1.35
4.40
7.40
1 75%
Ov3.5
4-0 (3-0)
Austria U21 Belarus U21 31/03/2026 16:00
1.33
4.40
8.00
1 70%
Un2.5
2-1 (0-0)
Greece U21 Germany U21 31/03/2026 16:00
4.80
4.20
1.53
2 80%
Ov3.5
0-2 (0-1)
Sweden U21 Italy U21 31/03/2026 16:30
4.20
3.80
1.68
2 75%
Ov3.5
0-4 (0-2)
Spain U21 Kosovo U21 31/03/2026 17:00
1.11
7.00
17.00
1 75%
Ov3.5
1-0 (0-0)
Switzerland U21 Estonia U21 31/03/2026 18:00
1.06
8.60
26.00
1 70%
Un3.5
1-1 (1-1)
England U21 Moldova U21 31/03/2026 18:00
1.04
9.40
34.00
1 80%
Ov2.5
1-0 (1-0)
Portugal U21 Scotland U21 31/03/2026 18:30
1.20
5.50
13.00
1 70%
Ov3.5
0-0 (0-0)
England flag England : Professional Development League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Wigan Athletic U21 Hull City U21 31/03/2026 12:00
2.10
3.90
2.62
1 55%
Ov3.5
2-0 (1-0)
Bristol City U21 Huddersfield Town U21 31/03/2026 12:00
2.40
3.80
2.30
2 55%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Charlton Athletic U21 Peterborough United U21 31/03/2026 12:00
1.91
4.00
2.90
1 80%
Ov3.5
5-2 (3-1)
Millwall U21 Sheffield Wednesday U21 31/03/2026 12:30
1.75
4.00
3.40
1 70%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Brentford U21 Fleetwood Town U21 31/03/2026 18:00
1.29
5.80
6.50
1 80%
Un3.5
3-0 (3-0)
Colchester United U21 Sheffield United U21 31/03/2026 18:00
4.60
4.50
1.50
2 80%
Ov3.5
1-1 (1-1)
Iraq flag Iraq : Iraqi League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Al-Qasim Diyala 31/03/2026 14:30
8.50
4.33
1.30
2 80%
Un2.5
0-4 (0-1)
Israel flag Israel : Liga Leumit
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Hapoel Nazareth Illit Bnei Yehuda 31/03/2026 13:00
3.20
3.10
2.15
2 55%
Ov2.5
1-1 (0-1)
Argentina flag Argentina : Liga Profesional Argentina
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Aldosivi Argentinos JRS 31/03/2026 17:00
4.35
3.05
1.95
2 70%
Un1.5
0-2 (0-2)
Spain flag Spain : Segunda División
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Mirandes Albacete 31/03/2026 17:00
2.62
3.25
2.62
2 55%
Ov2.5
1-0 (1-0)
Deportivo La Coruna Cordoba 31/03/2026 18:00
1.97
3.55
3.55
1 60%
Ov2.5
2-0 (2-0)
Valladolid Cadiz 31/03/2026 19:30
1.70
3.60
5.00
1 80%
Un2.5
?-?
England flag England : National League
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Woking Altrincham 31/03/2026 18:45
1.91
3.40
3.45
1 70%
Ov2.5
?-?
Wealdstone Hartlepool 31/03/2026 18:45
2.40
3.25
2.65
2 55%
Ov2.5
?-?
Southend Yeovil Town 31/03/2026 18:45
1.33
4.40
8.00
1 70%
Ov2.5
?-?
England flag England : National League North
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
AFC Fylde Marine 31/03/2026 18:45
1.20
4.80
15.00
1 70%
Un3.5
?-?
Hereford Macclesfield 31/03/2026 18:45
3.30
3.80
1.85
2 80%
Un3.5
?-?
Alfreton Town Chorley 31/03/2026 18:45
2.90
3.20
2.25
2 55%
Ov2.5
?-?
Spennymoor Town Kidderminster Harriers 31/03/2026 18:45
3.55
3.30
1.95
2 70%
Ov2.5
?-?
England flag England : National League South
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Maidenhead Bath City 31/03/2026 18:45
1.44
3.90
6.75
1 70%
Un2.5
?-?
Weston-super-Mare Hemel Hempstead Town 31/03/2026 18:45
2.45
3.10
2.62
1 55%
Un2.5
?-?
Enfield Town Chesham United 31/03/2026 18:45
3.60
3.40
1.83
2 80%
Ov2.5
?-?
England flag England : Non League Premier Southern South
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Tiverton Town Evesham United 31/03/2026 18:45
3.20
3.70
1.85
2 70%
Un3.5
?-?
Hanwell Town Sholing 31/03/2026 18:45
2.50
3.60
2.30
2 55%
Un3.5
?-?
Europe : World Cup Qualification Europe
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Bosnia & Herzegovina Italy 31/03/2026 18:45
6.75
3.80
1.52
2 75%
Un3.5
?-?
Czech Republic Denmark 31/03/2026 18:45
4.10
3.20
1.95
2 75%
Ov3.5
?-?
Kosovo Türkiye 31/03/2026 18:45
4.00
3.60
1.84
2 75%
Un3.5
?-?
Sweden Poland 31/03/2026 18:45
1.98
3.40
3.70
2 55%
Ov2.5
?-?
World : World Cup Qualification Intercontinental Play Offs
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Congo DR Jamaica 31/03/2026 20:00
1.84
3.30
4.50
1 70%
Un1.5
?-?
Paraguay flag Paraguay : Division Profesional Apertura
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
2 de Mayo Nacional Asuncion 31/03/2026 21:30
3.40
2.96
2.18
2 60%
Un2.5
?-?
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Sportivo Ameliano 31/03/2026 23:30
3.25
3.15
2.16
2 60%
Un2.5
?-?
Sportivo Luqueno Cerro Porteno 31/03/2026 23:30
3.90
3.30
1.88
2 70%
Un2.5
?-?
Brazil flag Brazil : Serie B
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Juventude Novorizontino 31/03/2026 21:30
2.16
3.05
3.55
2 55%
Un3.5
?-?
Mexico flag Mexico : Liga MX Femenil
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
León W Toluca W 31/03/2026 23:00
3.60
3.70
1.91
2 75%
Ov3.5
?-?
USA flag USA : US Open Cup
1
X
2
Prediction
Goals
Charlotte Independence Charleston Battery 31/03/2026 23:30
3.75
3.50
1.85
2 85%
Ov3.5
?-?
Editorial & Statistical Review: All match analysis is reviewed by the Supatips Football Analytics Team, led by Ade Ola. Predictions represent statistical probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ only — please gamble responsibly.
AO

Written & Reviewed by

Ade Ola — Lead Football Analyst, Supatips

Ade has spent years building statistical models for football matches, with a focus on probability-led analysis over gut-feel tipster culture. He reviews every page on Supatips before publication and writes the methodology guides. Read full bio →

How Supatips Works

Every day, Supatips pulls fixture data across 100+ leagues and runs each match through a probability model that considers recent form, home and away records, attacking and defensive output, and bookmaker pricing signals. The result is a 1X2 probability split — home win, draw, away win — alongside a confidence rating and a goals-market view.

The table above shows today's 127 fixtures. Each row displays the odds, the model's preferred outcome, and a confidence percentage. Finished matches show a ✓ or ✗ marker so you can see how the picks held up. So far today, 40 of 71 settled predictions have been correct — a 56% rate on finished matches.

A higher confidence percentage means the model leans more strongly toward one outcome, not that the result is certain. Use the figures as a guide, not a guarantee.

What the Numbers Actually Mean

The odds column shows the market price for home win (1), draw (X), and away win (2). The highlighted odds box is the one the model backs. Confidence runs from roughly 33% (perfectly even three-way split) up to around 75%+ for very one-sided fixtures. A match sitting at 40–45% confidence is genuinely close — the model has a preference but not a strong one.

The goals column shows whether the model expects a high-scoring or tight game, useful for readers interested in over/under markets. You can click through to dedicated markets — Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score, Correct Score — for a deeper view of each fixture.

How the Model Is Built

The core of the analysis is a Poisson-based probability model calibrated on attack and defence strength for each team. It factors in home advantage, which historically adds around 0.3–0.4 goals per game at most levels. Form weighting means recent results carry more influence than older ones, and the model cross-checks its output against market pricing to flag cases where there may be value on one side.

This is not a tipping service built on opinion. The page does not pick teams based on reputation, support base, or hype. If a smaller side has the statistical edge in a given match, that is what the model shows — and that transparency is the point.

Expected Goals (xG) and Fixture Context

Where xG data is available it feeds into the model's assessment of attacking quality — a team creating 2.1 xG per game is genuinely dangerous, even if their recent scoreline looks modest. Alongside this, fixture context matters: a team rotating heavily ahead of a cup game reads differently to a full-strength side with nothing to manage.

Saving Matches and Building Your Own View

The ☆ star button next to each fixture lets you save it to My Selection. Your saved fixtures are stored in your browser so they persist across sessions. This is useful if you want to track a handful of matches through the day without scrolling back through the full table.

Other Markets Worth Exploring

The 1X2 result market is only one way to look at a fixture. Supatips also covers a range of other markets, each with its own analysis page:

A Note on Responsible Gambling

⚠️ Please take a moment to read this.

Supatips is an analytical and informational service. The predictions here are probability estimates — not financial advice, not tips from an insider, and definitely not guarantees of any result.

Football is unpredictable by nature. A 70% confidence figure still means the model is wrong roughly three times in ten. Over a long run, statistical models add structure to decision-making — but no model eliminates uncertainty.

If you choose to use these predictions alongside betting, please keep the following in mind:

  • Only stake money you are genuinely comfortable losing.
  • Set a hard budget and treat it as a fixed entertainment cost — not an investment.
  • Never chase a loss. A bad run does not mean a correction is due.
  • Take breaks. If betting stops feeling enjoyable, step back.
  • These predictions are one input — your own judgement matters too.

Free support is available if gambling is causing concern:

🔞 18+ only. Check that sports betting is legal in your country before placing any wager.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are the predictions on Supatips free?

Yes — everything on this page is free. The full fixture table, odds, confidence ratings, and goals-market data are all published without a paywall. Some additional content is available for registered users.

How often is the page updated?

The fixture table refreshes throughout the day. Scores and result markers update as matches finish, so the accuracy tracker at the top of the page reflects live data rather than just predictions made before kick-off.

What does the confidence percentage mean?

It is the model's estimated probability for the predicted outcome — the highest of the three 1X2 probabilities. A 58% confidence home win means the model puts a 58% chance on that result, with the remaining 42% split between draw and away win. It is not a certainty; it is a measure of how one-sided the model sees the fixture.

What does 180 Predictions and Stats refer to?

It describes the breadth of Supatips' match coverage — not just a single result tip per game, but analysis across multiple angles: result, goals, BTTS, HT/FT, correct score, and double chance. The idea is to give readers a fuller statistical picture of each fixture rather than one number to bet on.

How do I save matches to My Selection?

Tap the ☆ star icon on any match row. Saved fixtures move to My Selection, which stores your picks in the browser so they are still there when you come back later.

Why does the model sometimes back the underdog?

The model does not factor in team reputation, shirt colour, or public opinion — only statistical signals. If a smaller club has better recent form, a stronger defensive record, and home advantage, the numbers may favour them over a bigger name that is struggling for form. That is part of the point: the analysis tries to be honest with the data rather than follow the crowd.