Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town Prediction

National League North · Sat 21 Feb 2026
England flag England : National League North
Alfreton TownDWWLL
3 - 2
Full time · HT 0 - 1
Merthyr TownDLLDW
Kick-offSat 21 Feb, 16:00
Our tip2 @ 2.40 ✗
GoalsOver 2.5
Confidence55%

Full-time report

Our tip2 ✗
Double chance12 ✓
BTTSYes ✓
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 ✓

Recent form

Last 5 matches, home and away
Alfreton TownDWWLL
10 Nov 26AWorkington0 - 3Non League Premier Northern
06 Nov 26AQuorn0 - 4Non League Premier Northern
31 Oct 26HAFC Emley2 - 1Non League Premier Northern
24 Oct 26AMickleover Sports2 - 1FA Trophy
17 Oct 26HWarrington Town1 - 1Non League Premier Northern
Merthyr TownDLLDW
07 Nov 26HHebburn Town4 - 1National League North
31 Oct 26ARadcliffe3 - 3National League North
27 Oct 26AOxford City0 - 3National League North
24 Oct 26HMorecambe1 - 3National League North
17 Oct 26HKing's Lynn Town1 - 1National League North

Head to head

Full head to head: Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town →

Our prediction

Merthyr Town to win

@ 2.40
Double chance
12  •  Alfreton Town or Merthyr Town
@ 1.22
Both teams to score
Yes – both teams score
@ 1.45
Confidence
55%

Our record

Our tips on Alfreton Townlast 20 tipped matches
12/2060%
Our tips on Merthyr Townlast 20 tipped matches
6/2030%
Our tips in National League Northlast 30 days
20/5139%

Correct 1X2 tips (home win, draw or away win), checked against the final score.

Who will win?

Voting closed at kick-off.

Goals outlook

Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Confidence
85%
Over 2.5: 66%Under 2.5: 34%
Expected goals
1.19Alfreton Town
3.41Total
2.22Merthyr Town

Possible correct scores

1 – 1 Draw 10% @ 6.25
2 – 1 Alfreton Town win 8% @ 8.00
1 – 2 Merthyr Town win 8% @ 8.00 Our pick
2 – 2 Draw 6% @ 9.50
0 – 1 Merthyr Town win 6% @ 9.50

Final score: 3 – 2 – not in our list. Exact scores are long shots – even the likeliest score usually comes in only 1 time in 8–10. 18+.

Win probability

Alfreton Town35%
Draw17%
Merthyr Town48%

Odds (1X2)

12.55
X3.40
22.40

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town preview and result

Alfreton Town and Merthyr Town met in the National League North on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (Nigerian time). The match finished 3 - 2, 0 - 1 at half time.

Our model gives Alfreton Town a 35% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Merthyr Town 48%. Our pick was Merthyr Town to win with 55% confidence at odds of 2.40. The pick lost this time ✗. For a safer option, the double chance 12 (Alfreton Town or Merthyr Town) covers two of the three results at odds of 1.22.

Goals: we expect about 3.4 goals (1.2 for Alfreton Town, 2.2 for Merthyr Town). The chance of three or more goals is 66%, so our goals pick is Over 2.5 (85% confidence). 5 goals were scored.

Form and head to head

Alfreton Town have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (D-W-W-L-L), scoring 5 and conceding 10. Merthyr Town have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (D-L-L-D-W), scoring 9 and conceding 11.

Frequently asked questions

What was the prediction for Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

Our pre-match prediction is Merthyr Town to win (55% confidence) at odds of 2.40. Win chances: Alfreton Town 35%, draw 17%, Merthyr Town 48%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Our pick is Over 2.5 with 85% confidence (chance of 3+ goals: 66%).

What time is Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town (National League North) was played on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 Nigerian time (WAT).

What is a safe bet for Alfreton Town vs Merthyr Town?

The double chance 12 (Alfreton Town or Merthyr Town) covers two outcomes at odds of 1.22. No bet is risk-free – stake only what you can afford. 18+.

Predictions are estimates from our model, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly. More: today's predictions · Bet Slip Builder · booking codes.