Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

Serie A · Sun 5 Apr 2026

Brazil : Serie A

Atletico-MGLLLLD

1 - 0

31'

Atletico ParanaenseWLDLL

Kick-offSun 5 Apr, 21:30

Our tip1 @ 1.90

GoalsOver 2.5

Confidence70%

Recent form

Last 5 matches, home and away

Atletico-MGLLLLD

07 Nov 26HGremio1 - 1Copa Do Brasil

05 Nov 26ABotafogo0 - 1Serie A

01 Nov 26AGremio0 - 2Copa Do Brasil

29 Oct 26HCruzeiro0 - 1Serie A

26 Oct 26AFlamengo2 - 3Serie A

Atletico ParanaenseWLDLL

04 Nov 26HVasco DA Gama1 - 3Serie A

30 Oct 26AGremio0 - 2Serie A

24 Oct 26AVitoria1 - 1Serie A

17 Oct 26HPalmeiras0 - 2Serie A

12 Oct 26AChapecoense-sc4 - 1Serie A

Head to head

Atletico-MG 18 · Draws 3 · Atletico Paranaense 13 (34 meetings, last 10 below)

08 Oct 26Atletico Paranaense2 - 2Atletico-MGSerie A

05 Apr 26Atletico-MG2 - 1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

08 Dec 24Atletico-MG1 - 0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

16 Nov 24Atletico Paranaense1 - 0Atletico-MGSerie A

02 Sep 23Atletico Paranaense1 - 1Atletico-MGSerie A

23 May 23Atletico-MG2 - 1Atletico ParanaenseCONMEBOL Libertadores

30 Apr 23Atletico-MG2 - 1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

19 Apr 23Atletico Paranaense2 - 1Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Libertadores

07 Aug 22Atletico-MG2 - 3Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

17 Apr 22Atletico Paranaense0 - 1Atletico-MGSerie A

Full head to head: Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense →

Our prediction

Atletico-MG to win

@ 1.90

Double chance

1X • Atletico-MG or Draw

@ 1.22

Both teams to score

No – at least one team fails to score

@ 1.83

Confidence

70%

Our record

Our tips on Atletico-MGlast 20 tipped matches

14/2070%

Our tips on Atletico Paranaenselast 20 tipped matches

10/2050%

Our tips in Serie Alast 30 days

25/4063%

Correct 1X2 tips (home win, draw or away win), checked against the final score.

Who will win?

Voting closed at kick-off.

Goals outlook

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Confidence

75%

Over 2.5: 50%Under 2.5: 50%

Expected goals

1.00Atletico-MG

2.67Total

1.67Atletico Paranaense

Possible correct scores

1 – 0 Atletico-MG win 12% @ 5.50

1 – 1 Draw 12% @ 5.50

2 – 1 Atletico-MG win 9% @ 7.00

2 – 0 Atletico-MG win 8% @ 7.50

0 – 0 Draw 8% @ 8.00

3 – 0 Atletico-MG win 5% @ 13.00 Our pick

Exact scores are long shots – even the likeliest score usually comes in only 1 time in 8–10. 18+.

Win probability

Atletico-MG62%

Draw24%

Atletico Paranaense14%

Odds (1X2)

11.90

X3.35

24.10

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense preview

Atletico-MG v Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A is under way – the score is 1 - 0 (31').

Our model gives Atletico-MG a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 14%. That makes our pick Atletico-MG to win with 70% confidence at odds of 1.90. For a safer option, the double chance 1X (Atletico-MG or Draw) covers two of the three results at odds of 1.22.

Goals: we expect about 2.7 goals (1.0 for Atletico-MG, 1.7 for Atletico Paranaense). The chance of three or more goals is 50%, so our goals pick is Over 2.5 (75% confidence).

Form and head to head

Atletico-MG have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (L-L-L-L-D), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Atletico Paranaense have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (W-L-D-L-L), scoring 6 and conceding 9. In their last 10 meetings, Atletico-MG won 18, Atletico Paranaense won 13 and 3 ended level. In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points and Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our prediction is Atletico-MG to win (70% confidence) at odds of 1.90. Win chances: Atletico-MG 62%, draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 14%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Our pick is Over 2.5 with 75% confidence (chance of 3+ goals: 50%).

What time is Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?

Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:30 Nigerian time (WAT).

What is a safe bet for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?

The double chance 1X (Atletico-MG or Draw) covers two outcomes at odds of 1.22. No bet is risk-free – stake only what you can afford. 18+.

Predictions are estimates from our model, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly. More: today's predictions · Bet Slip Builder · booking codes.

Serie A table

Atletico-MG7th50 pts

Atletico Paranaense5th54 pts

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21