Derby vs Birmingham Prediction

Championship · Sat 21 Mar 2026
England flag England : Championship
DerbyLLDLL
1 - 0
Half time
BirminghamWWLWW
Kick-offSat 21 Mar, 13:30
Our tip1 @ 2.68
GoalsOver 2.5
Confidence55%

Recent form

Last 5 matches, home and away
DerbyLLDLL
03 Nov 26HNorwich0 - 4Championship
31 Oct 26AMillwall1 - 4Championship
19 Sep 26ABurnley1 - 1Championship
12 Sep 26HBirmingham1 - 2Championship
09 Sep 26HWest Brom0 - 1Championship
BirminghamWWLWW
03 Nov 26HMillwall3 - 0Championship
31 Oct 26ALincoln3 - 1Championship
24 Oct 26ACardiff0 - 1Championship
17 Oct 26HQPR3 - 0Championship
13 Oct 26HPreston4 - 0Championship

Head to head

Derby 0 · Draws 0 · Birmingham 1 (1 meetings)

12 Sep 26Derby1 - 2BirminghamChampionship

Full head to head: Derby vs Birmingham →

Our prediction

Derby to win

@ 2.68
Double chance
12  •  Derby or Birmingham
@ 1.25
Both teams to score
Yes – both teams score
@ 1.73
Confidence
55%

Goals outlook

Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Confidence
75%
Over 2.5: 49%Under 2.5: 51%
Expected goals
1.91Derby
2.62Total
0.71Birmingham

Win probability

Derby45%
Draw18%
Birmingham37%

Odds (1X2)

12.68
X3.35
22.52

Derby vs Birmingham preview

Derby v Birmingham in the Championship is under way – the score is 1 - 0 (Half time).

Our model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Birmingham 37%. That makes our pick Derby to win with 55% confidence at odds of 2.68. For a safer option, the double chance 12 (Derby or Birmingham) covers two of the three results at odds of 1.25.

Goals: we expect about 2.6 goals (1.9 for Derby, 0.7 for Birmingham). The chance of three or more goals is 49%, so our goals pick is Over 2.5 (75% confidence).

Form and head to head

Derby have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (L-L-D-L-L), scoring 3 and conceding 12. Birmingham have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (W-W-L-W-W), scoring 13 and conceding 2. In their last 1 meeting, Derby won 0, Birmingham won 1 and 0 ended level. In the table, Derby are 23rd with 7 points and Birmingham are 3rd with 26 points.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derby vs Birmingham?

Our prediction is Derby to win (55% confidence) at odds of 2.68. Win chances: Derby 45%, draw 18%, Birmingham 37%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Derby vs Birmingham?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Our pick is Over 2.5 with 75% confidence (chance of 3+ goals: 49%).

What time is Derby vs Birmingham?

Derby vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:30 Nigerian time (WAT).

What is a safe bet for Derby vs Birmingham?

The double chance 12 (Derby or Birmingham) covers two outcomes at odds of 1.25. No bet is risk-free – stake only what you can afford. 18+.

Predictions are estimates from our model, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly. More: today's predictions · Bet Slip Builder · booking codes.

Championship table

Derby23rd7 pts
Birmingham3rd26 pts
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1 Middlesbrough 14842 1128
2 Wolves 14833 827
3 Birmingham 14752 1326
4 Stoke City 14824 526
5 Swansea 14824 526
6 West Brom 14743 525
7 Southampton 14842 1524
8 West Ham 14653 1523
9 Sheffield Utd 14644 322
10 Portsmouth 14644 322
11 QPR 14563 521
12 Norwich 14608 318
13 Millwall 14536 -118
14 Blackburn 14536 -218
15 Bristol City 14536 -318
16 Wrexham 14455 -217
17 Bolton 14527 -717
18 Cardiff 14365 -115
19 Lincoln 14437 -1015
20 Watford 14428 -1014
21 Charlton 14356 -1114
22 Burnley 14176 -810
23 Derby 14149 -187
24 Preston 141211 -185