Italy vs France Prediction

UEFA Nations League · Thu 12 Nov 2026

Europe : UEFA Nations League

ItalyLWDWW

3 - 1

Full time · HT 1 - 1

FranceWWDWL

Kick-offThu 12 Nov, 20:45

Our tip2 @ 1.95 ✗

GoalsOver 2.5

Confidence80%

Full-time report

Our tip2 ✗

Double chance12 ✓

BTTSYes ✓

Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 ✓

Goals & cards

10'⚽Michael Olise

13'Jérémy Jacquet

Pio EspositoAssist: Nicolo Cambiaghi⚽26'

Pio Esposito39'

Sebastiano Esposito (missed pen)✕60'

Davide FrattesiAssist: Federico Dimarco⚽63'

Davide Frattesi69'

Pio Esposito (pen)⚽75'

90+3'Eli Kroupi

Match stats

ItalyFrance

35%Possession65%

2.39Expected goals (xG)1.65

11Shots18

5Shots on target5

4Corners3

10Fouls18

1Offsides2

2Yellow cards2

4Saves2

Line-ups

Italy4-3-3

1G. DonnarummaG
2M. KayodeD
3G. ScalviniD
6A. BastoniD
5R. CalafioriD
16D. FrattesiM
8S. TonaliM
18N. BarellaM
7S. EspositoF
9F. EspositoF
19N. CambiaghiF

Coach: R. Mancini

France4-2-3-1

16M. MaignanG
2M. GustoD
22J. JacquetD
4D. UpamecanoD
3A. TruffertD
21L. da CunhaM
14A. RabiotM
11M. OliseM
7R. CherkiM
20D. DouéM
12B. BarcolaF

Coach: Z. Zidane

Referee: Istvan Kovacs · Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

Recent form

Last 5 matches, home and away

ItalyLWDWW

12 Nov 26HFrance3 - 1UEFA Nations League

05 Oct 26HTürkiye3 - 1UEFA Nations League

02 Oct 26AFrance1 - 1UEFA Nations League

28 Sep 26ATürkiye4 - 1UEFA Nations League

25 Sep 26HBelgium0 - 2UEFA Nations League

FranceWWDWL

12 Nov 26AItaly1 - 3UEFA Nations League

05 Oct 26HBelgium4 - 1UEFA Nations League

02 Oct 26HItaly1 - 1UEFA Nations League

28 Sep 26ABelgium1 - 0UEFA Nations League

25 Sep 26ATürkiye1 - 0UEFA Nations League

Head to head

Italy 3 · Draws 1 · France 2 (6 meetings)

12 Nov 26Italy3 - 1FranceUEFA Nations League

02 Oct 26France1 - 1ItalyUEFA Nations League

17 Nov 24Italy1 - 3FranceUEFA Nations League

06 Sep 24France1 - 3ItalyUEFA Nations League

01 Jun 18France3 - 1ItalyFriendlies

17 Jun 08France0 - 2ItalyEuro Championship

Full head to head: Italy vs France →

Our prediction

France to win

@ 1.95

Double chance

12 • Italy or France

@ 1.28

Both teams to score

Yes – both teams score

@ 1.53

Confidence

80%

Our record

Our tips on Italylast 9 tipped matches

4/944%

Our tips on Francelast 17 tipped matches

11/1765%

Our tips in UEFA Nations Leaguelast 30 days

6/967%

Correct 1X2 tips (home win, draw or away win), checked against the final score.

Who will win?

Voting closed at kick-off.

Goals outlook

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Confidence

75%

Over 2.5: 52%Under 2.5: 48%

Expected goals

1.46Italy

2.75Total

1.29France

Possible correct scores

1 – 1 Draw 10% @ 7.00

1 – 2 France win 8% @ 9.00 Our pick

0 – 1 France win 7% @ 10.00

0 – 2 France win 7% @ 11.00

2 – 1 Italy win 6% @ 12.00

Final score: 3 – 1 – not in our list. Exact scores are long shots – even the likeliest score usually comes in only 1 time in 8–10. 18+.

Win probability

Italy23%

Draw6%

France71%

Odds (1X2)

13.60 opened 3.80 ▼5%

X3.70 opened 3.80 ▼3%

21.95 opened 1.83 ▲7%

Opening odds tracked every hour · dropping odds · rising odds

Italy vs France preview and result

Italy and France met in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (Nigerian time). The match finished 3 - 1, 1 - 1 at half time.

Our model gives Italy a 23% chance of winning, the draw 6% and France 71%. Our pick was France to win with 80% confidence at odds of 1.95. The pick lost this time ✗. For a safer option, the double chance 12 (Italy or France) covers two of the three results at odds of 1.28.

Goals: we expect about 2.8 goals (1.5 for Italy, 1.3 for France). The chance of three or more goals is 52%, so our goals pick is Over 2.5 (75% confidence). 4 goals were scored.

Form and head to head

Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (L-W-D-W-W), scoring 11 and conceding 6. France have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (W-W-D-W-L), scoring 8 and conceding 5. In their last 6 meetings, Italy won 3, France won 2 and 1 ended level.

Frequently asked questions

What was the prediction for Italy vs France?

Our pre-match prediction is France to win (80% confidence) at odds of 1.95. Win chances: Italy 23%, draw 6%, France 71%.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Italy vs France?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Our pick is Over 2.5 with 75% confidence (chance of 3+ goals: 52%).

What time is Italy vs France?

Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League) was played on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 Nigerian time (WAT).

What is a safe bet for Italy vs France?

The double chance 12 (Italy or France) covers two outcomes at odds of 1.28. No bet is risk-free – stake only what you can afford. 18+.

Predictions are estimates from our model, not guarantees. 18+ only – bet responsibly. More: today's predictions · Bet Slip Builder · booking codes.